By: Pari Esfandiari @ Gregory Treverton
War by miscalculation can hardly be ruled out, but for the moment, both the Trump administration and Iran seemed to have decided to lower the temperature of the crisis. Neither side wants war. Foreign minister Javad Zarif’s tweet about Iran’s retaliation for Soleimani’s killing was notably measured: “Iran took and concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched. We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.”And the fact that no Americans were killed gave President Trump a useful off-ramp for avoiding escalation.
The two countries now seem likely to return to the cycle of conflict that has dominated their relations since the Iranian revolution. The trauma of Americans being held hostage has paralysed US policy for forty years, save only for President Obama’s brief opening through the nuclear agreement, one quickly quashed by the Trump administration.
